Iraq Update
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It rained here in Baghdad today. I mention this because we haven’t had a drop of rain since March. It was a welcome sign to see the pools of water turning the dusty sand into mud everywhere. Agriculture is one of the main sources of employment here, so the rain is a welcome sign after a long drought. It’s also essential to generating hydroelectric power. The rarity of a rain shower makes one appreciate that sometimes good things take time and require patience.
There are a few signs of progress here. I’d like to tell you what I see and provide some observations after nine months of combat service here. First, I’m not sure that most Americans recognize how strategically significant a secure, free and democractic Iraq is to our long-term U.S. national security interests. As news on Iraq fades from the headlines, less than one in 10 Americans now believe Iraq is a priority issue. National security experts from across the political spectrum have acknowledged the strategic significance of Iraq, as have both Al Qaida and Iran, who have committed tremendous resources to defeating coalition and Iraq security forces here. In October 2005, Ayman al-Zawahiri's (the 2nd in command of Al Qaida) wrote a letter to Al Qaida commander in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, emphasizing that Iraq was the central front in the global jihad and that the U.S. and our allies must defeated in Iraq. Our forces have been battling Al Qaida daily. U.S. officials reported this week that the top Al Qaida leader in Iraq, Abu Ghadiyah, was killed during a raid on his compound in Syria. In mid-October, the second in command of Al Qaida in Iraq, Moroccan-born Abu Qaswarah, was killed in a raid. Al Qaida and other insurgent groups are becoming less effective and capable of intimidating the Iraqi population. They are currently resorting to assassinations and use of female suicide bombers. Al Qaida is currently not capable of overthrowing the Iraqi government and they are losing it’s base of support. It is unlikely this terrorist group will ever be eliminated but they can and are being rendered incapable of upending Iraq’s development.
The Iraqi Army is growing more professional and capable each day. They have proven their ability to conduct independent operations in several major cities this year (Basrah, Amarah, Sadr City, Mosul) against both Al Qaida and Iranian backed extremists. As the Iraqi security forces grow more capable, U.S. military forces have been able to step back into mentoring and assistance roles. The Iraqi military has been very effective in capturing the insurgents and their weapons caches, which is why violence is down over 90% from last year’s levels. Violence is near the lowest levels of the war; levels last seen in January 2004. If allowed to continue in Iraq, our military leaders are confident that we can create a military and police force capable of independently defending itself against both insurgent and conventional foes.
Iran’s malign intentions are evident. Iran’s covert military groups, Hezbollah and the Quds force, have been training and equipping Shia insurgents in Iraq. Last week, a senior Iranian general publically announced that Iran was training militias to fight in conflicts throughout the region. The Iranian governments objectives are clear. It wants the U.S. out of Iraq and doesn’t want an economically vibrant, pro-western, democratic neighbor. At stake is Iraq, with tremendous natural resources(4th largest proven oil reserves) and potential to become an economic powerhouse in the Middle East on par with South Korea or Taiwan. At stake is Iraq, with the potential for being a nation where a myriad of ethnic groups can coexist and offer an alternative to religious extremism and terrorism. At stake is
a Iraq that is not allowed to deteriorate into a rogue nation and spend its $60 billion dollars in annual oil revenue to increase terrorism in the Middle East, an Al Qaida goal.
Unsuccessful in winning direct military engagements, Iran is now trying to coerce Shia support within the Iraqi population and government to achieve it’s objectives. Recently, Iran is attempting to influence Iraqi legislator’s as they deliberate a Status of Forces Agreement between the U.S. and Iraq, which will permit U.S. personnel to remain in Iraq to mentor the Iraqi security forces and government after the UN Security Council resolution expires in December 2008. Iran would like to manipulate Iraq as it is manipulating Lebanon to achieve it’s objectives. A continued U.S. presence in Iraq is important to keeping Iran in check.
The U.S. presence has been key to continued reconciliation, establishing rule of law and the development of democratic institutions at the regional and local level.
As the Iraqi government becomes more credible and effective, the local population have displayed a more positive outlook. Public approval of the Iraqi police is now at 64% and improving.
Politics in Iraq remains a challenge. Sectarian divisions from years of hatred are deeply rooted in the culture. Political divisions often prevent the government from achieving compromise on key legislation or expediting the distribution of resources. The Shia-led central government needs commit its budget surplus towards reconstruction and economic stimulus programs. Fortunately, the civil war or sectarian violence predicted by many skeptics of the war has not transpired. Legislative progress is evident. For example, provisional elections are planned in January 2009. Indications of reconciliation are also apparent. The Sons of Iraq, Sunni formed militias that successfully defeated Al Qaida in Al Anbar and other provinces are now being offered employment or positions within the Iraqi military. Unemployment is still at 40%; more international effort to build industry and create jobs is required. Investment in Iraq is growing. Six of Iraq’s neighbors have recently established diplomatic ties. The Iraqi stock market rose 40% in September: Iraq is estimated to make $56 billion in oil export revenue this year, and housing prices in Baghdad now exceed 2003 levels as demand grows.
Iraq is not a lost cause. It remains vulnerable to external influence. Our military forces in Iraq continue to be reduced as both security improves and the Iraqi’s become more capable. Patience and confidence should be extended to our military leaders on the ground to ensure a rushed departure is not imposed before our strategic objectives are fully obtained.
The vast majority of our military are on their second or third tours, and they remain committed to the mission here. I have not met a person in uniform that regrets being here and serving. We are seeing progress and the finish line- an Iraqi nation capable of being another post-war South Korea, Japan, or Germany.
In 1980, the U.S. changed its policy and came to the aid of El Salvador, a nation in civil war. Today, El Salvador is our ally in Iraq and recently agreed to continue to provide military forces and assistance to Iraq in 2009. We should look to recent international security successes and have confidence that Iraq will be a success.
Counterinsurgencies are inherently protracted campaigns. Iraq will require a little more patience and perseverance to ensure its security and political gains are sustainable.
I hope that you’ll continue to stay engaged with our military personnel are doing over here. We appreciate the support from home and remain confident we are succeeding here.
T. Kelly
Fairfax County Resident
US Marine Corps
Currently on 3rd tour in Iraq/Afghanistan
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